Fun with decimals (Presidential edition)

February 12, 2008 at 9:06 am | Posted in Democratic Party Presidential Primary, U.S. Politics | Leave a comment

Over at Talking Points Memo, Eric Kleefield brings us a lowdown of the polling before today’s primary contents in Maryland & Virginia (Washington D.C. also holds its primary today, but with a large black population, an Obama victory is all but guaranteed). They all show significant Obama leads:


ARG: Obama 55%, Clinton 37% (Today)

Mason-Dixon: Obama 53%, Clinton 35% (Feb. 10)

Rasmussen: Obama 57%, Clinton 31% (Feb. 9)

SurveyUSA: Obama 52%, Clinton 33% (Feb. 8th)


SurveyUSA: Obama 60%, Clinton 38% (Today)

ARG: Obama 56%, Clinton 38% (Today)

Mason-Dixon: Obama 53%, Clinton 37% (Feb. 10)

Rasmussen: Obama 55%, Clinton 37%

Still, if the last few weeks has shown anything, it’s that the polls shouldn’t be trusted. How lucky, then, that Economics professor Greg Mankiw brings us his statistical probabilities of who the next President will be:

P(Obama) = 0.41
P(McCain) = 0.34
P(Clinton) = 0.24

2/11 Monday morning update:

P(Obama) = 0.46
P(McCain) = 0.33
P(Clinton) = 0.21

See, aren’t decimals reassuring?


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